Does the Uncertainty of Monetary Policy Affect the Efficacy of Interest Rate Transmission Mechanisms? Micro-Evidence from the Investment-Capital Cost Sensitivity of Chinese Enterprises

Download PDF
Abstract: The uncertainty of monetary policy, as a latent cost of monetary policy regulation, increasingly captures the attention of the theoretical community and policy authorities worldwide. Employing empirical analysis on data from China's A-share non-financial listed companies between 2003 and 2019, it is found that monetary policy uncertainty undermines corporate confidence in development, leading to a diminished enthusiasm for adjusting investment strategies in response to economic fluctuations. This hampers the sensitivity of corporate investment to capital costs, suggesting that monetary policy uncertainty impedes market entity decision-making, not only impairing the effectiveness of monetary policy interest rate transmission mechanisms but also reducing the efficiency of corporate investment. Mechanism tests indicate that corporate confidence in development plays a crucial role in investment decisions in uncertain economic environments.
Keywords: Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Corporate Investment, Capital Cost
APA Citation: Shenling Wang, Ling Jiang, Cai Chang (2024). Does the Uncertainty of Monetary Policy Affect the Efficacy of Interest Rate Transmission Mechanisms? Micro-Evidence from the Investment-Capital Cost Sensitivity of Chinese Enterprises. International Journal of Global Economics and Management, 2(1), 66-83. https://doi.org/10.62051/ijgem.v2n1.09

References

  1. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016, 131(4): 1593-1636.
  2. Bertola, G., Guiso, L., & Pistaferri, L. "Uncertainty and Consumer Durables Adjustment." Review of Economic Studies, 2005, 72(4): 973-1007.
  3. Bloom, N. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2014, 28(2): 153-176.
  4. Bloom, N., Bond, S., & Van Reenen, J. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics." The Review of Economic Studies, 2007, 74(2): 391-415.
  5. Chirinko, R. S., Fazzari, S. M., & Meyer, A. P. "How Responsive is Business Capital Formation to its User Cost? An Exploration with Micro Data." Journal of Public Economics, 1999, 1(74): 53-80.
  6. Chen Guojin, Wang Shaoqian. "How Economic Policy Uncertainty Affects Corporate Investment Behavior." Finance & Trade Economics, 2016(05): 5-21.
  7. Chen Shoudong, Zhang Xiu, Liu Yang. "The Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism under Uncertainty Shocks." Research on Economics and Management, 2016, 37(06): 67-73.
  8. Cooper, R. W., & Haltiwanger, J. C. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs." Review of Economic Studies, 2006, 73(3): 611-633.
  9. Fang Jianzhen, Hu Cheng. "Exploration of the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Cash Holdings." Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications (Social Sciences Edition), 2020, 22(02): 49-57.
  10. Foote, C., Hurst, E., & Leahy, J. "Testing the (S, s) Model." American Economic Review, 2000, 90(2): 116-119.
  11. Foster, L., Haltiwanger, J., & Krizan, C. J. "Market Selection, Reallocation, and Restructuring in the U.S. Retail Trade Sector in the 1990s." Review of Economics and Statistics, 2006, 88(4): 748-758.
  12. Frank, M. Z., & Shen, T. "Investment and the Weighted Average Cost of Capital." Journal of Financial Economics, 2016, 119(2): 300-315.
  13. Gulen, H., & Ion, M. "Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment." The Review of Financial Studies, 2016, 29(3): 523-564.
  14. Hadlock, C. J., & Pierce, J. R. "New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints: Moving Beyond the KZ Index." The Review of Financial Studies, 2010, 23(5): 1909-1940.
  15. He Dexu, Yu Jingjing. "Study on the Real Challenges and Solutions of China's Monetary Policy Transmission." Economic Perspectives, 2019(08): 21-39.
  16. Huang, Y., & Luk, P. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty in China." China Economic Review, 2020, 59, No. 101367.
  17. Julio, B., & Yook, Y. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles." The Journal of Finance, 2012, 67(1): 45-83.
  18. Li Fengyu, Shi Yongdong. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Cash Holding Strategies – An Empirical Study Based on the China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index." Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2016, 19(06): 157-170.
  19. Li Fengyu, Yang Mozu. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Inhibit Corporate Investment? - An Empirical Study Based on the China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index." Journal of Financial Research, 2015(04): 115-129.
  20. Li Haoju, Cheng Xiaoke, Zheng Lidong. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Working Capital Management, and Corporate Value." Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics, 2016(03): 72-81.
  21. Li Wenjing, Zheng Manni. "Inflation Expectations, Corporate Growth and Corporate Investment." Statistical Research, 2016, 33(05): 34-42.
  22. Liu Chong, Pang Yuanchen, Liu Liya. "Structural Monetary Policy, Financial Regulation, and Interest Rate Transmission Efficiency – Evidence from China's Bond Market." Economic Research Journal, 2022, 57(01): 122-136.
  23. Liu Guanchun, Duan Yuzhu, Liu Yuanyuan. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Asset Reversibility, and Fixed Asset Investment." Economic Research Journal, 2019, 54(08): 53-70.
  24. Liu Guanchun, Liu Yuanyuan, Zhang Jun. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Asset Portfolio Allocation of Chinese Listed Companies – Discussing the 'Financialization' Trend of Real Enterprises." The Journal of World Economy, 2020, 20(05): 65-86.
  25. Mao Xinshu, Ye Kangtao, Zhang Di. "Measurement and Evaluation of Equity Capital Cost of Listed Companies – Empirical Test Based on China's Securities Market." Accounting Research, 2012(11): 12-22+94.
  26. Pu Wenyan, Zhang Honghui, Xiao Hao. "Debt Conservatism, Investment Opportunities, and Capital Investment of Chinese Listed Companies." Management Review, 2012, 24(04): 36-44.
  27. Qi Yuqing. "Analysis and Reflections on China's Monetary Policy Transmission Channels and Effects." Macro-Economic Research, 2023(07): 4-20.
  28. Rao Pingui, Yue Heng, Jiang Guohua. "Study on Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Behavior." The Journal of World Economy, 2017, 40(02): 27-51.
  29. Sharpe, S. A., & Suarez, G. A. "Why Isn’t Investment More Sensitive to Interest Rates: Evidence From Surveys." Management Science, 2021, 67(2): 720-741.
  30. Tan Xiaofen, Zhang Wenjing. "Channel Analysis of How Economic Policy Uncertainty Affects Corporate Investment." The Journal of World Economy, 2017, 40(12): 3-26.
  31. Tian Guoqiang, Li Shuangjian. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bank Liquidity Creation: Evidence from China." Economic Research Journal, 2020, 55(11): 19-35.
  32. Wolfgang, D., Sadok, E. G., Omrane, G., & Malte, J. "Policy Uncertainty, Investment, and the Cost of Capital." Journal of Financial Stability, 2018, 39: 28-45.
  33. Xu Mingdong, Chen Xuebin. "Analysis of Capital Cost Sensitivity of China's Industrial Enterprise Investment." Economic Research Journal, 2012, 47(03): 40-52+101.
  34. Xu Mingdong, Chen Xuebin. "Estimation of Capital Cost Sensitivity of Chinese Listed Company Investment." Journal of Financial Research, 2019(08): 113-132.
  35. Xu Mingdong, Tian Suhua. "Reform of Transition Economy and Capital Cost Sensitivity of Enterprise Investment – Based on Micro-Evidence from Chinese State-Owned Industrial Enterprises." Management World, 2013(02): 125-135+171.
  36. Yang Xingquan, Qi Yunfei, Wu Haomin. "Does Industry Growth Influence Corporate Cash Holdings?" Management World, 2016(01): 153-169.
  37. Yang, Z., Yu, Y., Zhang, Y., & Zhou, S. "Policy Uncertainty Exposure and Market Value: Evidence from China." Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2019, 57, No. 101178.
  38. Zhang Chengsi, Liu Guanchun. "Research on the Investment and Financing Decision Mechanism of China's Industrial Sector – From the Perspective of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financing Constraint Heterogeneity." Economic Research Journal, 2018, 53(12): 51-67.
  39. Zhang Chengsi, Zhang Butan. "The Mystery of the Decline in China's Industrial Investment Rate: A Financialization Perspective." Economic Research Journal, 2016, 51(12): 32-46.
  40. Zhang Yishan, Meng Xianchun, Li Tianyu. "Study on China's Monetary Policy Transition Mechanism – Based on an International Experience Perspective." Quantitative Economic Research, 2017, 8(01): 14-28.
  41. Zhang Zhe, Chen Lei, Chen Ping. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Yield Curve Transmission." Journal of Financial Economics, 2021, 36(01): 49-63.
  42. Zheng Manni, Li Wenjing, Liu Jianhua. "Micro-Effects of Interest Rate Liberalization: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies' Investment after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis." Statistical Research, 2023, 40(07): Certainly! Here's the combined list of C, arranged in alphabetical order.